Search Future, So Bright I’m Wearing Shades
Writing by Nick Stamoulis on Sunday, May 27, 2007 Leave a comment
Even with Microsoft and Yahoo combining their share of the search market, Google has them beat by 20%. According to a recent study by ZDNET, Microsoft is losing ground while Yahoo and Google are gaining ground. AOL and Ask.com are competing for fourth place.
The search engine landscape looks a lot like the technology business landscape in the 1980s and 1990s. IBM started out in the lead, the Microsoft issued a challenge. Dell and Apple went head to head for third place. In the shakeout, each fell into its own market niche and rode the tsunami to the future. Everyone now knows that Bill Gates and Microsoft dominates the technology sector. Is Google the next Microsoft?
Some people are saying so. But why?
To gain some clues as to why Google rose to the top while everyone else just sifted in the sand, we might try looking at their faces. Google’s is pretty simple. Nothing but a search box. It is a search engine after all. If you want something more they have options, but you have to choose them. By contrast, Yahoo and Microsoft offer all of their options right up front. “Hey! We’re more than just a search engine,” they seem to be saying. In fact, Yahoo, the most trafficked website online, gets much of its stickiness from the games that people play and the other services it offers. If people want to search for information, they go to Google.
Recent rumors that Microsoft could purchase Yahoo may be just a rumor or it might mean that both companies have given up trying to beat Google and are just trying to survive. The Internet might be big enough for two, maybe three, search engines, but four? Unless Ask.com folds under – probably not likely due to its recent change in direction and focus – that leaves little room for anyone to grow. Neither Microsoft nor Yahoo have made any real contributions to search technology in recent years. Yahoo’s purchase of Inktomi in 2002 has no doubt secured its place as the second favorite search engine. Google took its place as front runner due to its early emphasis in off page elements, a trait that all of the other search engines have followed.
Where will the search engines be five years from now? It’s anyone’s guess. I do believe a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo might be good for the search industry. The two companies could pool their resources and focus on developments to overtake Google. Ask.com can continue to imitate Google, but it is highly unlikely that it will ever truly compete because Google is now riding on the wave of its success in the PPC market. No one has shown any ability to compete there either.
Google will become more personalized. Others will try. Ask.com will have to specialize or become a niche engine. That will leave the MS-Yahoo team and Google as the two to choose from. Google will still lead though be despised by its users for being huge. They will use it anyway. As for me, I’m looking forward to the future of search. It’s seems so bright I’m wearing shades.
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